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I am wondering if Ruddock can be beaten because 7.3% margin doesn’t look completely unbeatable.
As a side note, I always think Hornsby Shire crossing the Galston Gorge and including Cherrybrook, Dural, Galston etc. is weird because I thought they fit better with the Hills Shire than in here, both by geography and voting patterns. (Note: I never lived anywhere near here but my former high school falls in this council area)
@Leon given voting trends I’m gonna say that Ruddock will hold the mayoralty and the Liberals will retain control of Hornsby.
Agree Leon, the Hornsby/Hills Shire boundary awkwardly divides Cherrybrook and possibly WPH in two along Castle Hill Rd instead of it passing through the forested areas further east.
Agree with Leon and Yoh An – and I have lived in Cherrybrook. People in Cherrybrook strongly identify as being part of the Hills District. I’d say the boundary gets even worse further north, where by following Old Northern Road, it savagely slices up small semirural communities.
@Nether Portal
I assumed so, but I noticed that in the 2022 Federal Election, I noticed that every (on the day) booths from Brooklyn to Cheltenham in Berowra electorate returned at least 18.7% for the Greens in primaries (in a field of 10 candidates or something). Every other significant clusters of 17.5+% booths in Greater Sydney (I used senate figures because of independents/strong incumbent in many of these areas) were at least one of Beachside, Hippie or reasonably clearly Inner City because I found:
– Waverley/Bondi to Coogee/Randwick area (Beachside, I think close enough to Inner City)
– Balgowlah/Manly to Brookvale/Curl Curl area (Beachside)
– Possibly (???) parts the former Pittwater LGA but I need to check again later (Beachside)
– North Sydney LGA, Artarmon and the rest of Postcode 2065 (Inner City)
– The usual stuff in Sydney/Grayndler (Inner City and parts presumably Hippie)
– Parts of Upper Blue Mountains (Presumably Hippie) if this still counts as Greater Sydney
I highly doubt anything in Hornsby Shire is any of Beachside, Hippie (maybe bar Brooklyn) or Inner City
–Summary–
@Leon, interesting look at the Green vote. If you look at the 2021 results across adjacent councils, you can see the Greens expanding beyond traditional bases and solidifying current positions. This is based mainly in strong traditional Liberal areas, with Labor becoming weaker across the edges of Northern Sydney (as discussed previously verbatim on the Northern Beaches and previous Hornsby thread) and in some ways, was a foreshadow of trending voting changes that brought the teal wave in 2022. [EDIT: Another thing to note is Tania Salitra ran as the Greens candidate in all the last 3 elections in this area and this profile could also have helped the Greens vote in 2022 Fed and 2023 State.]
–Comparison–
When looking at Hornsby, west neighbouring The Hills and north-east neighbouring Northern Beaches, the Greens gained one councilor in each. In Northern Beaches, it was at the expense of a well-known Independent, in Hornsby, it was at the expense of Labor and in The Hills, it was an the expense of Liberals. What makes Hornsby more remarkable is it’s strong Green vote in the northern reaches of Ward A hadn’t translated to a position for councilor before now. Whereas, The Greens benefited in Northern Beaches (Pittwater Ward) and The Hills (North Ward) of Labor pulling out from previous election.
As a comparison to competitive Labor vs Liberal areas that neighbour Hornsby to the south, the Greens held station in Parramatta while they were wiped out in Ryde.
It’s a surprise that the Greens don’t contest Ku-ring-gai council. Although, there is a current Voices of Ku-ring-gai movement that could potentially support candidates in the upcoming election there, which may hinder the Greens entering that council.
–Looking back on 2021–
What won it for the Greens in Ward A back in 2021, was their vote substantially increased and overtook Labor for ‘best of the rest’ against the Liberals (Aided by two independent groups disappearing). Remembering also that Labor almost didn’t have a seat in this council with a very close contest in Ward B that could have left the council 7 Libs vs 3 Grns.
–Final Thoughts for now/2024 Election–
Mayoral: It will most likely be another LIB vs GRN contest as it’ll be hard to Labor as they don’t have many high profile candidates for this area. Whether it’s Ruddock or not, still see this as a Liberal Retain.
Ward A: Both Tilbury (LIB) and Waddell (LIB) have been Deputy Mayor this term and have compliment their profiles respectively on the East and the West of the Ward, it’s hard to see either of them loosing. Like 2021, this will be 2 LIB and last seat will be open, with GRNs starting, of course, as favourites.
Ward B: Sallianne (LIB) and Janelle (ALP) both have high profiles in the community compared to Monika (GRN). If Janelle runs again, I think this will save Labor’s seat here. But I can see this being a 2 LIB and either 1 GRN or 1 ALP in 2024.
Ward C: This surprised me with the loss of the IND Councilor in 2021. Sreeni (LIB) is very active on social media and built up a profile in the community. This far out, it’s hard to see anything but 2 LIB and 1 GRN, even if ALP do contest here this time.
So it’s a Liberal Control Retain.
One of the issues that has come out over the last 6 months has been the attempted moves by Nathan Tilbury to kick Pennant Hills District Cricket Club off Pennant Hills Park (Pennant Hills Oval and Ern Holmes Oval). The word is that certain members of the Liberal Party have fallen out significantly with the president of the cricket club, resulting in a motion from Tilbury to have the club phased off from the ground. The Vote was defeated 7-2 but, from the information I have so far, this situation is far from over.
Similar to KRG, the other issue will be over-development in the area.
According to the FDC Registers, the starting gun has been fired in the race for Hornsby, with Ward B having a group registered as of 11/4/24. This group is aptly called ‘The Moderates’ with two candidates currently listed as Thomas Sellers and Millicent Scott. Group B didn’t have any independent groups last time, with just the big 3 (ALP, LIB & GRN) running.
As the final seat was VERY close in this Ward last time, any extra groups could really effect that outcome. If as ‘Moderates’ they take votes off ALP, this would then hand the last seat to the LIBs. If they take votes off the LIBs, it makes Janelle Mcintosh (ALP) hold on the last seat more secure, keep to a status quo of 1 LIB 1 GRN 1 ALP. If this Independent Group does run and takes votes off each, it could make for a very interesting 3 way battle for the final two seats between GRN 1, ALP 1 and LIB 2. (The LIBs are guaranteed 1 seat here.)
Although, I shouldn’t discount this group as their Platform/Objective clearly states their goal ‘to win’.